According to the latest Zogby International poll, Barack Obama is closing in on Hillary. Obama went from 7% in December to 14% in January to 25% this month; he is now just 8% behind Hillary, who sits at 33%. John Edwards’ numbers have stagnated at 12% for the past three months. Here’s how the race is shaping up:
| Democrats | Republicans |
|
Clinton 33% |
Giuliani 29% |
|
Obama 25% |
McCain 20% |
|
Edwards 12% |
Romney 9% |
|
Richardson 5% |
Rice 7% |
|
Biden 2% |
Gingrich 7% |
|
Clark 1% |
Brownback 4% |
|
Someone else 3% |
Tancredo 1% |
|
Not sure 20% |
Hunter 1% |
|
|
Someone else 4% |
|
|
Not sure 19% |
In addition, Obama is the only candidate who is ahead in every general election race:
| Giuliani 47%, Clinton 40% | Giuliani 40%, Obama 46% | Giuliani 46%, Edwards 40% |
| McCain 47%, Clinton 39% | McCain 40%, Obama 44% | McCain 47%, Edwards 38% |
| Romney 35%, Clinton 45% | Romney 29%, Obama 51% | Romney 32%, Edwards 47% |
What’s interesting here is the second table and the Obama vs Clinton aspect of the moderate/undecided vote. One would naturally expect the more moderate candidate (Clinton) to pull more of the moderate/undecided voters, but the poll indicates just the opposite–that those voters are more likely to vote Democrat through Obama (the more liberal candidate) than through Clinton.
Admittedly, polls this early are as wrong as they are right, but it will be an notable trend to look for as the campaigns progress.
I am not too sure the results of the second table are attributed to either Clinton or Obama being more moderate or liberal.
I do think you are right though, its a direct result of Obama’s appeal to undecided. I read an interesting poll a couple weeks ago. I don’t remember the source (I think it was from CNN), so you will have to take my word for it. The poll questions were “Do you want to know more about Hillary Clinton” and “Do you want to know more about Barack Obama?” To the first question, 3% of those surveyed responded affirmatively. To the second question, 47% of those surveyed responded affirmatively.
People by and large have made up their mind on Clinton. As for Obama, its our job to inform the undecided.
I agree with you with regard to the results of the second table. My point, actually, was that the moderate/liberal label *didn’t* appear to apply in this case. In years past, both parties have attempted to cater to undecided voters by nominating candidates who are perceived to be the most moderate. Many Democrats argued in 2004 that they should nominate John Kerry, not because he was their first choice, but because he was the most capable Democrat of winning the moderate vote. For the moment, this appears not to apply. Clinton is clearly perceived as the more moderate of the two, yet the swing voters appear to lean towards Obama.
Bottom line is that Obama is making head-way…it seems that the Democratic Primary will be the toughest battle in this election.